My son recently celebrated his fifth birthday. We had a party for him and we did the obligatory “party packs” for the children. The highlight was the bubbles. It always is. The kids ran around and showered one another in bubbles. But there weren’t as many bubbles at that party as there have been bitcoin bubble-critics, some of whom are world-renowned intellectuals.
I can’t help but look at these critics in the same way I looked at the kids at my son’s party. I don’t mean that in a condescending way. I couldn’t be condescending toward these intellectual giants, even if I wanted to be. But honestly, how else do you look at someone who can’t (or simply won’t) assume a wider perspective?
It is entirely true that bitcoin did, at various stages in its 13-year history, enter “bubble-territory” where the price was due for a major correction. But describing bitcoin itself as a bubble (in its entirety) ignores any comparison between its price history and that of other infamous bubbles.
But before I go any further I have to put a disclaimer here. I am not qualified to draw conclusions based on the technical analysis of price charts. This article only attempts to make a generalized comparison between what we know were bubbles, and bitcoin’s price history. Based on that it should be pretty clear that, whatever it is, bitcoin is something other than what is usually described as a bubble.
Bubbles pop. And while markets may recover, bubbles certainly do not re-inflate themselves again and again. If bitcoin is a bubble, it’s a magic bubble. It would be something that exists in an entirely new category unlike any other bubble we’ve ever seen before.
Having recently set a new all-time-high at over $68,500, the bitcoin price surpassed it’s previous all-time high of $64,000 from April 2021. Which, in turn, surpassed the December 2017 all-time high of $20,000. This has happened FIVE times in less than 13 years.
Not only that, but soon after bitcoin entered what traditional experts labelled “bubble territory” during these new successive all-time high peaks, a catastrophic “crash” of 50% – 80% always followed — only for the price to consolidate again, then build to new all-time highs at levels multiple times higher than previous records, all within relatively short periods of time. This pattern has played itself out around record highs set in mid-2011, late-2013, late-2017, April 2021 and now again in November 2021.
BTC – $1. Bubble, crash. Consolidate.
BTC – $10. Bubble, crash. Consolidate.
BTC – $100. Bubble, crash. Consolidate.
BTC – $1,000. Bubble, crash. Consolidate.
BTC – $10,000. Bubble, crash. Consolidate.
BTC – $100,000 – ?
Bitcoin resembles a phoenix rising from the ashes of its own obituaries, far more than it resembles a bubble. It has been pronounced dead multiple times since 2010 and yet, despite multiple major corrections, bitcoin has maintained a 200% annualized rate of return through all of it.
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ان لم يكن لديك سؤال..كلمة شكر تكفينا